| 8:30 a.m. |
Registration and light breakfast |
| |
Forecasting activities in a pharmaceutical company
- Forecasting over the life cycle of a Pharma product
- The concepts of planning base and assumptions
- Creating a validated planning base
- Why patient based modeling rather than analogues
|
| 11:00 a.m. |
Morning refreshments and networking |
| |
Building a patient-based model
 Information requirement
- Area and population data
- Market approach
- Segmentation (population and disease)
- Epidemiology
- Prevalence vs. incidence
- Other variables
- Diagnosed
- Drug treated
- Compliance
|
| 12:30 p.m. |
Lunch |
| |
Forecasting a product patient share baseline
over time
Peak share
- Variables influencing peak share
- The peak share worksheet
- Case examples
Uptake curves to peak
- The Bass diffusion model
- Setting the p and q of the model
- The diffusion optimizer worksheet
- Case examples of recent new product launches
- Non symmetric diffusion modeling
|
| 3:30 p.m. |
Afternoon refreshments and networking |
| |
Selecting the modeling approach
- Static
- Dynamic (patient flow)
Generating the patient population: static modeling or the case of prevalence for general medicine products
- The prevalence worksheet
- Case examples
|
| 5:30 p.m. |
Closing remarks and end of Day I |
| 8:30 a.m. |
Light breakfast |
| |
Validating a patient-based baseline
- Concept of total market
- Necessary information for triangulation
- Taking into account concomitant usage
- Extrapolating time series data
- Review of statistical forecasting methods
- Working with your own copy of WFCAST
- Program utilities
- Selecting the best method for pharmaceutical data
- Measures of fit accuracy
- Exporting the forecast
- Entering and working with your own data
|
| 11:00 a.m. |
Morning refreshments and networking |
| |
Establishing the final patient share forecast
- The notion of post-launch assumptions
- Assumption typology and impacts
Oncology and specialty products: dynamic modeling or the case of incidence
- Patient flow analysis
- Case examples
|
| 1:00 p.m. |
Lunch |
| |
Operational Forecasting in a Total Market
environment
- From product to market share forecasting
- Total Market - the reality check
- Key parameters of Total Market
- Case examples
|
| 3:15 p.m. |
Afternoon refreshments and networking |
| |
Enterprise Strategic Forecasting
- The concept of enterprise
- Operational forecasting in the pharmaceutical industry
- Linking Strategic and Operational forecasting
- Critical success factors
- Administration of enterprise forecasting:
a demonstration of HARUSPEX
|
| 5:15 p.m. |
Concluding remarks |
